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The “Global Economic Conditions Survey” report for the third quarter shows an indicator of confidence in the fight against inflation amid a volatile business environment

Iman Al-Wasli

The Middle East is one of the only regions Which recorded an improvement in the confidence levels index within the survey, registering an increase during the third quarter compared to the second quarter of this year

Inflation continues to affect global economies with monetary policy tightening and signs of economic recession emerging

The latest edition of the Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) report issued by the Association of Certified Public Accountants (ACCA) and the Institute of Management Accountants (®️IMA) showed that levels of Confidence in the X economic outlook remains well below average indicators recorded over the past decade due to concerns about inflation and stagnation of business. The third quarter survey, which is the largest regular economic survey of accountants around the world, covered countries in the Middle East region including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt. Jordan and Iraq. The report can be found here or at https://www.imanet.org/insights-and-trends/global-economic-conditions-survey

The survey was conducted between 2 and September 100, collecting more than 100 answers. Globally, the findings revealed that nearly three-quarters of companies are struggling with increasing operating costs, with a higher proportion of respondents citing increased cost pressures over the past decade, more than one in three expressing concern about declining income levels, while a higher proportion of respondents pointing to increased cost pressures over the past decade. A similar highlight is the volatility of foreign exchange rates, as uncertainty and signs of recession dominate the recent economic outlook.

According to the survey, the Middle East was one of the only regions that recorded an improvement in orders. New, in addition to South Asia. The report also revealed that the third quarter showed signs of balance with respect to the previous quarter, which witnessed a sharp decline. This quarter, the market witnessed an uptick due to higher energy earnings, as oil prices, which are still above the average level, averaged close to 100 dollars per barrel. Despite the low confidence index, the region’s outlook seems relatively strong, provided oil prices continue.

The survey indicated that two developments took place that emphasized the unstable nature of the trading environment at the global level. First, the increase in the number of respondents who reported “problems securing immediate payment,” which rose to a four-year high. This may be the first indication of an increase in the number of institutions that may face liquidity difficulties. Secondly, the survey found that there is a significant increase in the numbers indicating “problems in accessing financing”, as it is likely that the tightening of more stringent monetary policy during the period of 100 years will affect the Corporate liquidity.

The data also indicated that levels of confidence in the economic outlook remain well below the average of indicators recorded over the past decade, while the other three indicators that are closely related to activity The economy, namely new orders, capital spending and employment, all showed further declines. Taken as a whole, the series of indicators of economic activity corresponds to slower global growth for the remainder of the year, accompanied by rising inflationary pressures.

In this context, said Laurel Giles, vice president of research and policy at the Institute Management accountants: “Although confidence levels have recovered after a sharp decline in the second quarter survey, the indicators of new orders, capital spending and employment all showed a further decline. The “fear” indices, which monitor anxiety about customers and suppliers going out of business, have changed little but are still higher than the levels recorded during the pre-pandemic period. Jamie Lyon, Head of Skills, Sectors and Technology ACCA: “The Economic Activity Index series is less volatile than the Confidence Index and may give a better sense of the slowdown in economic growth underway in the region. There is no doubt that with the US Federal Reserve engaging in tightening monetary policy to control inflation, it is inevitable that indicators of confidence and economic activity will decline.” The ‘Global Economic Conditions Survey’ refers to the current ongoing challenges in the global economy, which is a reflection of the ongoing economic repercussions resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war, further tightening of monetary policy in key regions, and the cost of living crisis. A key risk will be the extent to which central banks will be able and quickly to further tighten monetary policy in the coming months to deal with and control inflation pressures, and whether the global economy may slow more than business leaders expect in 2023 Or not.”

“For most regions of the world, the Global Economic Conditions Survey indicates lower business orders compared to the previous quarter and an index of new orders over the past year. The survey stated that companies will face a difficult time during the next few months, accompanied by inflationary pressures.”